SCENARIO FORECASTING AND TARGETING OF STATE POLICE MEASURES TO PROMOTE SMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN LATVIA
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Abstract
In the framework of this work, the authors have developed an algorithm for scenario forecasting of small business development in Latvia, based on the assessment of the probability (using the method of hierarchy analysis) of transformation of available opportunities into strengths for each type of support for small business development (financial and credit, educational, informational, institutional and legislative, property and material-technical, informational, consulting) and taking into account the probability of influence of economic transformation risks on this process. The proposed algorithm allowed to envisage pessimistic, realistic and two types of optimistic scenarios: the first – growth of competitive positions of Latvian small business in the Baltic market, the second – in the European market. For each of the scenarios, the experts have determined the maximum limits that integrally evaluate each of the researched types of small business development support, and the a priori probability of realisation of these scenarios has been calculated. The article defines the foresight objectives aimed at achieving the desired development scenarios, the possibility of their realisation is confirmed by calculating a posteriori probability (according to Bayes theory) for each of these scenarios and identifying positive trends in changes compared to the a priori probability.
How to Cite
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foresight objectives for economic transformation, scenario forecasting of small business development, state support for small business in Latvia
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