BEYOND SOFT POWER: THE TRANSFORMATION OF SINO-THAI DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
Abstract
This article explores the PRC’s strategy of transitioning the foreign policy stance of Thailand from that of a traditional U.S. security partner toward a more China-aligned orientation. The methodological framework is grounded in the structuralist paradigm of international relations, utilizing the concept of «weaponized interdependence», alongside an analytical approach that includes content, institutional, and trend analysis. The study concludes that the PRC’s approach to gaining leverage over Thailand does not rely solely on soft or hard power; rather, China constructs «nodes» of asymmetrical dependence through informal relations with high-ranking officials to establish a neopatrimonial system. Consequently, political stakeholders prefer the pragmatic preservation of existing ties over confrontational policies toward the PRC, which in turn limits engagement with third-party states. Prospects for further research include examining this pattern in other regional states, as well as exploring the negative consequences of such strategies for China’s broader soft power.
How to Cite
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
Thailand-PRC partnership, ASEAN, asymmetrical dependence, neopatrimonialism, foreign policy alignment, panda diplomacy.
2. Cassetta, J. M. (2022). The Geopolitics of Swap Lines. M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series, 181. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/181_AWP_final.pdf
3. Chanlett-Avery, E. (2010, January 22). Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations [Every CRS Report]. https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20100122_RL32593_798ea38de0f940440f3ade448833c5494f5bfb21.pdf
4. Chuanren, C. (2025, August 13). Thai submarine is to proceed with Chinese engines [Asian Military Review]. https://www.asianmilitaryreview.com/2025/08/thai-submarine-is-to-proceed-with-chinese-engines-foc/
5. Gershaneck, K. K. (2020). Political warfare: strategies for combating China’s plan to «Win Without Fighting». Marine Corps University Press. https://www.usmcu.edu/portals/218/Political%20Warfare_web.pdf
6. Hamlin, K. (2001, August 31). Can a little dragon breathe fire? [Institutional Investor]. https://www. institutionalinvestor.com/article/2btfm6nn69in5izw8cc1s/home/can-a-little-dragon-breathe-fire
7. Hohnholz, L. (2009, June 29). Chiang Mai tourism – baby panda to the rescue [ETurboNews]. https://eturbonews.com/chiang-mai-tourism-baby-panda-rescue/?srsltid=AfmBOorkkwGeKokIZB8q5vV40l6OiUTIXFeOfl4OZhIV6XJ9LrGQved4
8. Hollister, M. (2025, December 23). Thailand Shows the West Has Already Lost Southeast Asia [Geopoliticalmonitor]. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/thailand-shows-the-west-has-already-lost-southeast-asia/
9. James A. Baker, III. (1991, December 1). America in Asia. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaf-fairs.com/asia/america-asia
10. Lin, J., Martinus, M., Fong, K., Phuong Thao, P. T., Aridati, I. Z., & Sasitharan Gauri. (2026, April 7). The State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report [ISEAS]. https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/The-State-of-Southeast-Asia-2026-Survey-Final-Single.pdf
11. Moss, D. (2022, August 24). What Happened to Carolyn Maloney’s Pandas? [Their Turn]. https://theirturn.net/2022/08/24/carolyn-maloney-pandas/
12. Opponents of panda diplomacy make a case for Thai elephants. (2024, January 30). [The Nation]. https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/general/40035129
13. Panda Lin Hui: A Symbol of Friendship between China and Thailand. (2025, March 3). [Panda Tribe]. https://pandatribe.org/panda-lin-hui-a-symbol-of-friendship-between-china-and-thailand/
14. Raymond, G. V. (2025). Explaining ‘Grey Capital’: The Sociology of Transnational Chinese Companies and Crime in Thailand. Journal of Contemporary China, 34(152), 350–365. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2024.2302485
15. Ryoo, J. (2026, May 12). Thailand Balances U.S., Chinese Military Exercises with Dual Strategy [The Chosun Daily]. https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2026/05/12/OZJ5G3AELJBJJFKFSNIHGEEEMU/
16. Sirikupt, C. (2025, July). China Index Spotlight: As Close as One Family? Examining PRC’s Influence in Thailand [Doublethink Lab].
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PYi_ZVeh5AER3kPxOavS4R13Ha-I_pkP/view
17. Storey, I. (2019, October 21). Thailand’s Kra canal project: Game changers and China’s involvement [ThinkChina]. https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/thailands-kra-canal-project-game-changers-and-chinas-involvement
18. Thailand’s Trade Statistic Report System. (n.d.). [Office of the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Commerce]. https://tradereport.moc.go.th/en
19. US embassy cables: Thai officials express concerns over crown prince. (2010, January 25). [The Guardian]. https://www.theguardian.com/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/245161
20. เกี่ยวกับสมาคม. (n.d.). [สมาคมวัฒนธรรมและเศรษฐกิจไทย-จีน]. https://thaizhong.org/th/about-us/history.html
21. ความเป็นมาหมีแพนด้าในสวนสัตว์เชียงใหม่. (n.d.). [Chiang Mai Zoo]. https://chiangmai.zoothai-land.org/ewt_news.php?n_id=221
22. ดีใจมั้ย! ไทยจะมี “แพนด้า” (อีกแล้ว) คุ้มมั้ย! กับ “ราคาที่ต้องจ่าย”. (2025, February 8). [MGR Online]. https://mgronline.com/daily/detail/9680000012356
23. อดใจรอ! "แพนด้ายักษ์" คู่ใหม่ถึงไทยปี 70. (2024, November 9). [Thai PBS]. https://www.thaipbs.or.th/news/content/346129