THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FOREIGN DEBT IN GREECE

Abstract

The purpose. The impact of foreign debt growth on the social and economic performance of Greece was shown. The parameters of GDP, consumption, interest rates, unemployment and government spendings were analyzed.
Methodology. Data obtained for 2001-2014 was used for regression analysis, vector autoregression and as well as Kalman filter. Results. A multi-faced analysis of the debt for EU-member states and Greece in particular was
performed. The events and decisions of Greek authorities leading to the crisis were summarized in structural and logical scheme. The recommendations for the economic policy of Greece, based on the performed analysis were suggested. The practical applications. Establishment of all weaknesses and empirical testing of the necessary indicators in this study was the basis for the justification of measures to stabilize the economic situation in Ukraine and Greece. Value/originality. The Mandel-Fleming model and the model of balance of savings-investments was used for the first time for the theoretical interpretation of the nature of the debt crisis in Greece, that under the influence of capital inflows caused by the deterioration of the current account balance and interest rate cuts. The increase in foreign borrowings has led to an increase in the budget deficit and reduction in savings. Also for the first time performed regression-correlation analysis, in particular the Kalman filter is used to study the effect of debt on macroeconomic performance of the Greek economy.