Tatiana Bludova, Natalia Savchuk


Subject of research: assessment and management of economic security of regional foreign trade flows of regions of Ukraine. Methodology: during the research, statistical analysis and analytical analysis (in the study of the main aspects of the formation of foreign trade flows of the region) are used. Mathematical modelling in economics (when creating a model of the two-dimensional normal distribution of regional foreign trade streams) and methods of analysis for risk assessment, conditioned by the formalization of the uncertainty of the operation of regional foreign trade operations are also used. The purpose of scientific research: mathematical modelling in economics in the management of economic security of export-import flows of regions of Ukraine; analysis of the structure of regional foreign trade flows in Ukraine and their respective risks; creation of the field of economic security of foreign trade flows of the region. The conclusion of the research: the study of limits and quantitative analysis of the risk of regional foreign trade flows in some regions of Ukraine is reduced to the creation of the area of crossing the main splicing ellipses of two-dimensional normal laws of export-import flows of these regions. After that, it will be possible to make a comparative assessment of the competitiveness and economic security of the regions. The purpose of the article is to develop an economic-mathematical model of quantitative risk analysis and to find appropriate boundaries of foreign trade flows of the region, which allows setting the thresholds of regional exportimport operations for optimal management of the process of foreign trade flows of the region. The foreign trade flows of Ivano-Frankivsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions of Ukraine based on a two-dimensional normal distribution are modelled. Areas of threshold values of indicators of foreign trade flows of regions from the point of view of economic risk are defined, which, in contrast to existing one-dimensional approaches, takes into account elements of the interconnection of foreign trade flows of the region. The methodical conditions for constructing split ellipses of foreign trade flows of the region for comparative estimation of the risk of competitiveness and economic security of the regions are developed. This will make possible to conduct a systematic analysis of the region’s economic development and to take measures both at the local level and at the state level in order to neutralize a number of threats to its economic security.


export-import flows, differential function, two-dimensional normal distribution law, ellipse scattering.

Full Text:



Andriychuk, V. G., Ivanov, E. I. (2014). Vplyv uhody pro asotsiatsiyu mizh Ukrayinoyu ta YES na mytne-taryfne rehulyuvannya i zovnishnotorhovelnyy rezhym storin [Influence of Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU on customs tariff regulation and foreign trade regime of the parties]. Foreign Trade: Economics, Finance, Law, vol. 3, no. 74, pp. 4-15.

Bilorus, O. H., Havryliuk O. V. (2015). Stratehichni imperatyvy adaptatsiyi ta transformatsiyi zovnishnotorhovelnoyi diyalnosti Ukrayiny v umovakh yevropeyskoyi intehratsiyi [Strategic imperatives of adaptation and transformation of Ukraine’s foreign trade activity in the conditions of European integration]. Economy of Ukraine, no. 11, pp. 4-15.

Dedyaeva L. M (2014). Osoblyvosti formuvannya struktury eksportu Ukrayiny [Features of the structure of export structure of Ukraine]. Foreign Trade: Economics, Finance, Law, vol. 1, no. 72, pp. 21-27.

Kryvoruchko M. Yu. (2015). Resursna oriyentovanist eksportu ta importu yak faktor sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku rehioniv Ukrayiny [Resource orientation of export and import as a factor of socio-economic development of regions of Ukraine]. Business Inform, no. 9, pp. 112-122.

Kurochkina I.G. (2015) Analiz tendentsiy rozvytku svitovoyi torhivli tovaramy ta posluhamy [Analysis of trends in the development of world trade in goods and services]. Business Inform, no. 9, pp. 37-42.

Lapshin V. I., Kuznychenko V. M., Ovcharenko Yu. S. (2015) Stan zovnishnoyi torhivli v rehionakh Ukrayiny [The state of foreign trade in the regions of Ukraine]. Foreign Trade: Economics, Finance, Law, no. 2, pp. 255-267.

Lall, S.V., Koo, J. and Chakravorty, S. (2003) Diversity matters: the economic geography of industry location in India. The World Bank. (The World Bank policy research working paper series no. 3072). Retrieved from:

Marianne Matthee and Wim Naudé. (2008) Export diversity and regional growth in a developing country context: Empirical evidence. Retrieved from:

Melnyk, T., Pugachevska, K. (2015). Perspektyvy importozamishchennya v Ukrayini [Prospects for import substitution in Ukraine]. Bulletin of the Kiev National Trade and Economics University, vol. 2, no. 100, pp. 16-33.

Oskolsky, V. V. (2014). Klasteryzatsiya – vahomyy faktor pidvyshchennya konkurentospromozhnosti ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Clusterization is a significant factor in increasing the competitiveness of Ukraine’s economy]. Ukraine economy, no. 11, pp. 38-56.

Ofitsiynyy sayt Derzhavnoho komitetu statystyky Ukrayiny (2015, 2016, 2017). [Official site of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (2015, 2016, 2017)] Retrieved from:



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.