EXPLORING THE INFLUENCES ON DISPLACED CITIZENS' DECISION TO REPATRIATE: A CLASSIFICATION OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTORS

Abstract

The article focuses on the study and analysis of factors that have a decisive influence on the process of decision making regarding the return of citizens to their country after forced displacement caused by various crisis situations. As a result of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has found itself at the centre of significant migration processes, which have not only humanitarian but also socio-economic consequences for the state and its population. In many countries around the world, similar processes have been triggered not only by war, but also by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods or hurricanes, forcing people to temporarily leave their homes. The research aims to identify both positive and negative factors influencing the decision of Ukrainians to return home, and to compare this with international experience, particularly in relation to natural disasters. In order to achieve the research objectives, a comprehensive interdisciplinary approach was applied, based on the analysis of a wide range of scientific works and studies in the field of migration processes. Moreover, the case-study method was employed to examine specific examples from various countries where citizens confronted analogous circumstances and made decisions regarding returning or resettling. The study conducted an in-depth analysis of the social, economic and political factors that play a role in the decision-making process regarding people's return. A classification method was applied to systematise the data, allowing for the structuring of factors and the identification of key influences. As a result of the research, several important positive and negative factors were identified that influence the decision to return. Positive factors include the improvement in the security situation, government programmes for displaced persons and the prospects for economic growth in the country as it begins to recover. At the same time, negative factors include continued military aggression, uncertainty about infrastructure reconstruction and a lack of social guarantees. It is important to note that international experience, particularly from countries affected by natural disasters, highlights the significance of stability and restoring trust in local authorities and infrastructure. The results of the study have significant practical implications for the formulation of government policies and international organisations that aim to support the process of returning citizens in post-conflict and post-disaster periods. In particular, the conclusions can serve as the foundation for creating socio-economic reintegration and adaptation programs for citizens who were forced to leave their homes. Furthermore, the data can be utilised to develop programmes that encourage displaced persons to return and further integrate into the economy. The research's originality lies in its synthesis of analyses of the impact of military conflicts and natural disasters on migration processes and decisions to return. The innovation of the work lies in the creation of a novel classification of factors that considers both the Ukrainian context and international experience. The research has the potential to serve as a foundational basis for further academic studies and as a practical instrument for the formulation of state policies that are aimed at the effective management of migration processes in the aftermath of crises.