ECONOMIC DRIVERS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT ON VIETNAM'S ASEAN EXPORTS

Abstract

The present study investigates the determinants of Vietnam's export performance to ASEAN countries, with a specific focus on the roles of economic factors and trade-related infrastructure. As the phenomenon of regional economic integration intensifies within the context of frameworks such as the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), the comprehension of the dynamics that influence bilateral and multilateral trade flows becomes progressively imperative, particularly in the case of developing economies such as Vietnam. In this context, the primary objective of the study is to empirically examine the impact of macroeconomic variables and infrastructure conditions on Vietnam's export flows to its ASEAN partners over time. In order to achieve this objective, the study employs a panel dataset covering the period from 2006 to 2021, encompassing trade data between Vietnam and nine ASEAN countries. The methodological framework is built upon the Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) model, which is well-suited to address key econometric issues commonly found in panel data, such as heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. This approach is intended to ensure the robustness and reliability of the estimated coefficients. The empirical results obtained have yielded several noteworthy findings. Firstly, it was established that both Vietnam's GDP (β = 9.21e-06, p < 0.001) and the GDP of ASEAN countries (β = 2.95e-06, p < 0.001) have a statistically significant and positive impact on Vietnam's exports. This finding serves to reinforce the notion that economic growth plays a pivotal role in the stimulation of regional trade. Secondly, in contrast to prevailing expectations, Vietnam's Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI), which serves as a proxy for trade-related infrastructure, exhibits a negative and statistically significant effect on exports (β = -12351.15, p < 0.05). This result suggests the existence of inefficiencies or mismatches in Vietnam's shipping infrastructure that may hinder export competitiveness. Furthermore, conventional trade policy variables such as tariff rates and border effects have been found to exert negligible influence on Vietnam's export flows within the ASEAN region. This phenomenon may be indicative of the diminished significance of tariffs in the context of ongoing regional liberalisation, thereby suggesting that non-tariff barriers or structural impediments may assume a more substantial role. The findings emphasise the necessity of promoting sustained economic growth and enhancing the quality and efficiency of trade infrastructure in order to improve Vietnam's export performance. The present study makes a contribution to the broader literature on international trade by providing fresh empirical insights into the complex interactions between economic and infrastructural determinants of export activity in Southeast Asia.