THE RCEP ECONOMIES AMID GLOBAL TURBULENCE
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Abstract
In spite of the increased geopolitical tensions, recent years have witnessed a greater regional trade integration in East Asia, the heart of the Asia Pacific. The objective of the paper is to examine the dynamics of GDP, GDP per capita, population, merchandise trade of the member states of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Methodology. The data, taken from the UNCTAD Handbooks of Statistics and the UNCTADstat Data Centre, as well as various publications, served as the information source for using the methods of tabular and graphical representation, comparative analysis, logical generalization, historical analysis, etc. The results demonstrate the strengthening of China’s position within the RCEP: during 2015–2023, its share of the bloc rose from 54,44% to 60,27%. The PRC’s share of the world grew from 14,92% to 16,92%. In 2023, the regional nominal GDP of the RCEP amounted to $29’481 bln, or 28,07% of the global GDP making it the second among the integration blocs of the world after the USMCA ($31’262 bln, or 29,77% of the global economy). Over 2015-2023, GDP rose with different speeds throughout the RCEP: on the one hand, GDP of Viet Nam rocketed by 118,51%; of Cambodia – by 77,30%; Singapore – by 62,77%; GDP of the PRC increased by 59,27%; while, on the other hand, GDP of Myanmar grew by 14,25%; GDP of Japan – by merely 2,67%. Brunei Darussalam is the only member of the group which experienced GDP decline (by 3,84%). During the analyzed period, GDP per capita of the RCEP grew from $9’257 to $12’712.3, i.e. nearly in line with the world average, which increased from $10’173 to $12’985. In 2023, the RCEP’s population accounted for 28,66% of the world; between 2015 and 2023, all the RCEP member states registered population growth, with the exception of Japan (-1,74%). In 2023, the group provided 29,22% of global goods exports and consumed 24,9% of global goods imports. From 2015 to 2023, the RCEP merchandise trade surplus rose from $712 bln to $920 bln. In 2023, China had the largest goods trade surplus among the RCEP nations ($823 bln), while Japan ran the largest merchandise trade deficit ($69 bln). Practical implications. East Asia has always been one of the most contested regions of the world where the interests of the global players intersect; however, the prosperity at present requires not only the reconsideration of the lessons learned in the past, but primarily implies the transformation from competition to collaboration – the imperative for peaceful coexistence in future for all. Value/originality. The RCEP, located geographically in the centre of the Indo-Pacific, has shown itself a reliable platform, created for pushing forward a stable, attractive, and predictable multilateral trading environment for all interested in liberalization. China is playing its key role in the RCEP, where ASEAN countries are also welcoming new members, representing the other regions and civilizations, to their integration bloc.
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regional economic integration, East Asia, Southeast Asia, ASEAN, China, RCEP membership, major regional trading power, trade policy, nominal GDP, GDP per capita (nominal), population, merchandise exports, merchandise imports
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