BILATERAL TRADE PATTERNS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION-UKRAINE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR
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Abstract
The present study aims to quantify the agricultural trade patterns in the agri-food sector between the European Union and Ukraine. To this end, the following indices will be measured: the Trade Intensity Index, the Export Similarity Index, the Grubel-Lloyd Index, the Weighted Grubel-Lloyd Index, the Cosine Similarity Index, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, and the Export Diversification Index. An analysis was conducted of EU agri-food exports to Ukraine and EU agri-food imports from Ukraine by product group during the period 2020-2024. A comparative analysis was then made of their agri-food export structure, the results of which revealed a pattern of moderate similarity alongside significant differences. An analysis of the structure of bilateral agri-food trade reveals that, while the trade relationship between the EU and Ukraine has deepened in terms of volume and institutional linkage, structural convergence in agricultural exports remains limited. The EU and Ukraine continue to specialise in distinct agri-food segments. Ukraine's exports are dominated by arable crops and plant-based products, whereas the EU's exports to Ukraine exhibit greater diversification across product groups, with a strong emphasis on processed and value-added goods. This phenomenon can be interpreted as indicative of a complementary relationship between the EU and Ukraine, as opposed to a competitive one, wherein trade patterns are driven by disparities in production structures. Ukraine remains a significant agri-food partner for the EU, while the EU continues to be Ukraine's dominant trading counterpart. Ukraine's agricultural exports are more intensive towards the EU. This high level of trade intensity is indicative of the geographical proximity, preferential access granted by the DCFTA, and complementary resources of both partners. The study recommends a number of actions for the promotion of structural upgrading, including alignment with EU standards, investment in processing capacity, and innovation in agricultural value chains. These actions could foster greater diversification and increase the share of intra-industry trade.
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agri-food sector, export structure, integration, intra-industry trade, patterns, primary agri-food products, trade intensity, trade relations, value-added agricultural products
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