THE IMPACT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA-ISRAEL AND IRAN MILITARY CONFLICT ON GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS AND SUPPLY CHAINS: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW
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Abstract
This systematic literature review investigated the impact of a potential military conflict between the United States of America (USA), Israel and Iran on global trade flows and supply chain systems. The study adopted the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach, drawing on a large number of studies identified through a literature search of several popular academic databases, including Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCOhost, ScienceDirect and JSTOR. Consequently, a total of 52 articles that have undergone the peer-review process and were published between 2020 and 2026 were selected on the basis of their relevance. The present study has identified the following five major transmission channels of the effects of geopolitical conflict on international trade flows and supply chains: energy market disruptions; maritime transit vulnerabilities; trade fragmentation through economic sanctions; supply chain resilience and adaptive strategies; and macroeconomic and sectoral spillovers. Based on the reviewed literature, the following major implications of the current conflict on international trade flows can be identified: instability in energy markets and threats to strategic maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to impose cost pressures on international trade flows and require the restructuring of global trade. The findings emphasise the importance of strategic diversification and the development of resilient supply chains, as well as prospective policy actions to address the potential for disruption. This study makes theoretical and policy contributions based on the latest scholarly discourse. It emphasises the need for adaptive, technology-facilitated and diversified approaches to ensure the smooth running of international trade in a tense geopolitical environment.
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geopolitical risk, supply chain disruption, trade flows, energy markets, maritime security, economic sanctions, PRISMA
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