PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF RESEARCH OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF MARKET ENVIRONMENT DISTORTIONS

Abstract

Further changes and improvement of the conditions necessary for the development of economy, market and institutional environment should be based on gradual institutional transformations of the most important spheres of social relations, taking into account all the peculiarities of functioning of enterprises of different types of economic activity and forms of ownership. The regulation of the market environment should be based, first of all, on an institutional approach by creating an adequate support mechanism and stimulating its development. The purpose of the article is to formulate the methodological bases for the study of institutional aspects of market environment disortion on the basis of predictive analysis and institutional engineering. The authors summarize that the institutional environment has certain rules of behavior for the subjects of the socio-economic system, which reduce uncertainty in the functioning of this system, and also contribute to the growth of welfare of members of society. It has been determined that, both formal and informal, they must promote the effective functioning of economic processes and represent social value and productive force in socio-economic development in themselves, forming such a resource of society as social capital, which supplements and regulates the use of physical and human capital. The availability of social capital reduces the amount of transaction costs and, accordingly, the number of services for monitoring and controlling the behavior of participants in the economic process. It is proposed to conduct research based on predictive models of forecasting manner, that is used to predict the income and expenses of the subject and its future status. The overall macro-factor analysis of market distortions has made it possible to determine that the most comprehensive analysis of the elements of the institutional environment is carried out by the World Bank, with the help of several groups of indicators: the first group includes political liberties and political stability, the second one isthe efficiency of governance and the quality of regulatory activity, and the third one is the rule-of-law assessment of the quality of compliance of the human rights, property rights. It is also possible to determine the dynamics of the efficiency of government in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Predictive analysis of the market environment allowed us to consider institutional changes, both through the prism of quantitative analysis of economic agents and qualitative factors of influence (the perfection of rules, time interval for their implementation, etc.). Also, it allowed to analyze the disparities in the market environment from the point of view of trajectories formed by gradual changes and trajectories that have certain "breaks", jumps or "institutional shocks". The authors present the characteristics of the results of a predictive analysis of institutional development. It is generalized that the final assessment of institutional changes and their effectiveness can only be determined after their implementation. Pre-forecasting gives a plausible estimate of the effectiveness and a predictable estimate of chreodity of the development option. It also proposes the introduction of institutional engineering as an activity aimed at developing models of economic institutions that are consciously and purposefully introduced into the market environment and mass economic behavior. The main problem lies in the development of such rules and principles of activity, the adherence of which would contribute to the effective solution of those problems for which they were created.