RE-THINKING OF NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AGE OF PANDEMICS

Abstract

The magnitude of COVID-19 pandemic caught the world off guard. Therefore, strategic anticipation in policy making, exit strategy out from COVID-19 environment, and strategic impact of the pandemic for international, regional, and national security in post-COVID-19 world will be the most important issues in the foreseeable future. Increasingly complex and complicated strategic security environment of the beginning of the 21st century will be characterized by further global and regional instability in failed and/or failing states, and regional crises and conflicts. Moreover, global security environment in post-COVID-19 world will finalize transition from unipolar, the United States dominated global security framework – legacy of post- Cold War settlement after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991-into multipolar global security order with China, Russian Federation, India and other actors who will be increasingly challenging the United States and the West politically, economically and militarily. Post-COVID-19 global security environment will be further challenged by decreased ability of international organizations, such as UN, OSCE, EU, and others, to address urgent and simultaneous security threats and challenges, therefore, the role of the state will increase bothinternationally and domestically. However, since numbers of states are rather weak in terms of social cohesion and institutional capability- these states will be increasingly vulnerable to maintain effective institutional framework in order to address security challenges of the post-COVID-19 world. Moreover, these security challenges will specifically target small states due to the fact that small states are heavily dependent for their own security and defence arrangements on politically powerful and militarily capable global actors, therefore, small states will become increasingly vulnerable to address their political, social, economic and military challenges. The threat of terrorism, illegal migration, conventional military conflict, organized crime, cyber threats, CBRN threats, conventional arms control (CAC) issue, further development and control of nuclear weapons, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction- these are just a few domains of global and regional security, which will remain of utmost importance in post-COVID-19 world. Subsequently, defence, security and law enforcement institutions will face substantial legal, operational, moral, and institutional challenges in post-COVID-19 security environment. These challenges will include the limits of recruitment, standing operational procedures (SOP), rules of engagement (ROE), morale of personnel, and other relevant domains. Moreover, possibility of open involvement of active and former members of defence, security and law enforcement institutions into internal political affairs of a state will significantly increase.