INFLATION TARGETING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UKRAINE (THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE PRACTICE OF THE NATIONAL BANK)
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Published:
Jun 20, 2024
Abstract
The reciprocal, two-way relationship between inflation and economic development, which is often, although not entirely correctly, measured by GDP dynamics, is the subject of long discussion in the economic literature. Following the main conceptual results of this debate, the authors analyze the relationship between economic growth and inflation in Ukraine over the past decade. The goal of this article is to determine not only the impact of inflation on economic growth, but also to assess the level of effectiveness of government policy to curb inflation. Which is implemented, inter alia, through inflation targeting carried out by the National Bank of Ukraine. The article discusses the main results of the implementation of this policy, draws relevant conclusions and formulates conceptual recommendations.
How to Cite
Mantsurov, I. G., Khrapunova, Y. V., & Hvelesiani, A. H. (2024). INFLATION TARGETING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UKRAINE (THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE PRACTICE OF THE NATIONAL BANK). Baltic Journal of Legal and Social Sciences, 30-48. https://doi.org/10.30525/2592-8813-2024-spec-2
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Keywords
interrelationship between inflation and economic development, economic growth, inflation targeting, Keynesian policies, money supply, national banking policy, Phillips Curve, qualitative and quantitate analysis, the Tobin Effect
References
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16. T. E. Clark, (1993). Cross Country Evidence on Long Run Growth and Inflation. Federal ResearchBank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper No. 93–05.
17. E. Erbaykal and H. A. Okuyan (2008). Does Inflation Dress Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey? International Research Journal of Finance Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 40–48.
18. World Bank (1993) The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. A World Bank Policy Research, Oxford University Press, Oxford, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 8–23.
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23. Mantsurov I., Mantsurov D (2015). Post-War successful rehabilitation of Ukraine in the framework of Constitutional and Institutional Changes. Modeling and Information Systems in Economics: Collection of Scientific Papers. Issue 91, pp. 36–44.
24. Mantsurov I.G. (2013). State Institutions for Regulating Social Development in Ukraine. Monograph. Kyiv. 315 p.
25. How Ukraine Should Rebuild Its Economy and Business After the War: Extensive Research (2023). Retrieved from: https://forbes.ua/ru/money/yak-pisslya-viyni-ukraina-mae-vidnovlyuvati-ekonomiku-ta-biznes-velike-doslidzhennya-deloitte-15122022-10501
26. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2023).Retrieved from: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
27. National Bank of Ukraine (2023). Retrieved from: https://bank.gov.ua/en/statistic
28. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2023). Retrieved from: https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/banks/nbu/refinance/
29. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, pp. 195-214. Retrieved from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(93)90009-L
30. The World Bank Data Bank (2023). Retrieved from: https://databank.worldbank.org/
2. S. Johansen (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, pp. 231-254
3. Mundell, R. (1963). Inflation and Real Interest. Journal of Political Economy.
4. A. C. Stockman (1981). Anticipate Inflation and the Capital Stock in Cash in Advanced Economy. Journal of Monetary Economy, Vol. 8, No. 3.
5. R. J. Barro (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 5326.
6. S. Fisher (1993). The Role of Macro Economics Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, No. 2.
7. S. Gerlarch and F. Smets (1994). Contagious Speculative Attacks. BIS Working Paper No. 22, Retrieved from: http//:ssrn.com/abstract=868432
8. R. C. Kormandi and P. E. Meguire (1985). Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross Country Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 16, No. 2.
9. M. Bruno and W. Easrerly (1998). Inflation Crisis and Long Run Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 41, No. 1.
10. S. Paul, C. Kearney and K. Chowdhury (1997). Inflation and Economic Growth: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis. Applied Economics, Vol. 29, No. 10.
11. T. Gylfason and T. T. Herbertsson (2001). Does Inflation Matter for Growth. Japan and World Economy, Vol. 13, No. 4.
12. J. De Gregorio (1993). Inflation, Taxation and Long Run Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 31, No. 3.
13. L. Serven and A. Slimano (1992). Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustments: A Survey. World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, Oxford, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 95–114.
14. R. Levin and S. Zervos (1998). Stock Market, Banks and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 537-558.
15. J. Bullard and J. Keatry (1995). The Long Run Relationship between Inflation and Output in Post War Economies. Journal of Monetary Economy, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 477–496.
16. T. E. Clark, (1993). Cross Country Evidence on Long Run Growth and Inflation. Federal ResearchBank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper No. 93–05.
17. E. Erbaykal and H. A. Okuyan (2008). Does Inflation Dress Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey? International Research Journal of Finance Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 40–48.
18. World Bank (1993) The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. A World Bank Policy Research, Oxford University Press, Oxford, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 8–23.
19. D. A. Dickey and W. A. Fuller (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,. Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 1057–1072.
20. P. C. B. Phillips and P. Perron (1988). Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, Vol. 75, No. 2, pp. 336-346
21. Tobin, J. (1965). Money and Economic Growth. Econometrica. 33 (4): 671–684
22. Joseph E. Stiglitz (2015). The Great Divide: Unequal Societies and What We Can Do. W. W. Norton Company.
23. Mantsurov I., Mantsurov D (2015). Post-War successful rehabilitation of Ukraine in the framework of Constitutional and Institutional Changes. Modeling and Information Systems in Economics: Collection of Scientific Papers. Issue 91, pp. 36–44.
24. Mantsurov I.G. (2013). State Institutions for Regulating Social Development in Ukraine. Monograph. Kyiv. 315 p.
25. How Ukraine Should Rebuild Its Economy and Business After the War: Extensive Research (2023). Retrieved from: https://forbes.ua/ru/money/yak-pisslya-viyni-ukraina-mae-vidnovlyuvati-ekonomiku-ta-biznes-velike-doslidzhennya-deloitte-15122022-10501
26. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2023).Retrieved from: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
27. National Bank of Ukraine (2023). Retrieved from: https://bank.gov.ua/en/statistic
28. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2023). Retrieved from: https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/banks/nbu/refinance/
29. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, pp. 195-214. Retrieved from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(93)90009-L
30. The World Bank Data Bank (2023). Retrieved from: https://databank.worldbank.org/