FUZZY-LOGICAL EXPERT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF ENTERPRISES
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to build a fuzzy expert system for assessing the financial component of the economic security of telecommunications enterprises. The methodological basis of the research is founded on scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists and leading experts in the field of financial analysis and modeling of economic processes, as well as statistical and financial reporting data that are publicly available. To construct an integral indicator of the financial security of an enterprise, a fuzzy conclusion is used. Three financial indicators are used as input variables. The first indicator X1 is the Current Ratio (CR). The second indicator X2 is Equity Ratio (ER). The third indicator is Return on Assets (ROA). The output variable is defined as an indicator of the financial security of an enterprise Y123 (FS). Both the input variables and the output variable are converted to fuzziness by constructing membership functions. The type and parameters of the affiliation function are justified, and the bell-shaped affiliation function is chosen to describe the uncertainty of values that fall under the normal distribution. The quantity of fuzzy sets at every input is considered as z=3 and the quantity of input variables is considered as ω=3. To achieve completeness of the model, the quantity of logic rules is considered as r=33=9. To calculate a degree of market concentration, Mamdani fuzzy conclusion is applied. Defuzzification is engaged to calculate the value of the output variable Y123(FS) for an indicator that determines the degree of financial security of an enterprise and, as a result, the degree of its economic security. To assess the level of the financial security indicator of an enterprise, a fuzzy expert system is constructed. The fuzzy expert system allows you to use various indicators thanks to the fuzzy logic methodology, which takes into account the fuzziness of input variables and output variables as much as possible. For the three telecommunications companies whose core business is wireline communication, ratios are calculated based on financial reports. Financial coefficients are used to determine the integral indicator of financial security of enterprises. This indicator can be characterized by both numerical values and linguistic terms.
How to Cite
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
financial security of the enterprise, integral indicator, fuzzy expert system, fuzzy logic, membership function, defuzzification, Current Ratio (CR), Equity Ratio (ER), Return on Assets (ROA)
Altman, E.I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance. № 4. P. 589–609.
Blank, Y.A. (2004). Upravlenye fynansovoi bezopasnostiu predpryiatyia [Financial security management of the enterprise]. К.: Elga, Nika-Center. 784 p.
Chaika, T.Iu., Loshakova, S.Ie., & Vodoriz, Ya.S. (2018). Rozrakhunok koefitsiientiv likvidnosti za balansom, urakhuvannia finansovykh i vyrobnychykh osoblyvostei pidpryiemstva pid chas zdiisnennia koefitsiientnoho analizu likvidnosti [Calculation of liquidity ratios on the balance sheet, taking into account the financial and production characteristics of the enterprise when performing a coefficient analysis of liquidity]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo [Економіка та суспільство]. №12. P. 900-908.
Davydenko, N.M. (2017). Investytsiina pryvablyvist pidpryiemstv [Investment attractiveness of enterprises]. Aktualni problemy rozvytku ekonomiky rehionu [Investment attractiveness of enterprises]. Issue 13. Vol. 1. P. 59-68.
Diyazitdinova, A.R., & Saprikina, A.A. (2018). Primenenie nechyotko-mnozhestvennogo metoda pri ocenke finansovoj ustojchivosti infokommunikacionnyh kompanij [Fuzzy logic method for rating financial standing of infocommunication company]. Infokommunikacionnye tehnologii [Infocommunication technologies]. V. 16, № 3. P. 310-317.
Herasymenko, S.S., & Holovach, N.A. (2003). Peredbachennia finansovoho stanu pidpryiemstva pry otsintsi yoho zdatnosti do prodovzhennia diialnosti [Predicting the financial condition of an enterprise when assessing its ability to continue operating]. Actual problems of the economy. №4. P. 2–4.
Hladchenko, T.M. (2001). Ekonomichna bezpeka pidpryiemnytskoi diialnosti [Economic security of entrepreneurial activity]. Aktualni problemy mizhnarodnykh vidnosyn [Current problems of international relations] Collection of scientific works. Issue 26. К. VPC "Kiev University", Institute of international relations. P. 295-299.
Kampo, H.M., Dochynets, N.M., & Havrylets, O.V. (2017) Otsinka finansovoi stiikosti pidpryiemstv Ukrainy [Assessment of financial stability of Ukrainian enterprises]. Scientific Bulletin of Uzhgorod university. Economics series. Issue 1 (49). Т.1. С. 150-158.
Korpan, O.V. (2017). Metody otsiniuvannia rivnia finansovoi bezpeky pidpryiemstva [Methods for assessing the level of financial security of an enterprise] // Efektyvna ekonomika [Efficient economy]. №1. Available at: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=5401 (accessed 15 August 2021).
Korol, T., & Korodi, A. (2012). An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy. Institute for Economic Forecasting (3), 92–107.
Krakos, Yu.B., & Razghon, R.O. (2008). Upravlinnia financovoiu bezpekoiu pidpryiemstv [Managing the financial security of enterprises] Ekonomika ta upravlinnia pidpryiemstvamy mashynobudivnoi haluzi: problemy teorii ta praktyky [Economics and management of machine-building enterprises: problems of theory and practice]. № 1(1). P. 86-97.
Myаchin, V.H., & Kutsyns’ka, M.V. (2015). Vyznachennia priorytetnosti pokaznykiv finansovoho stanu, obranykh dlia otsinky ryzyku bankrutstva promyslovykh pidpryiemstv metodom nechitkykh mnozhyn [Determining the priority of Financial Condition Indicators selected for assessing the risk of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises using the fuzzy set method]. Naukovyi visnyk Mizhnarodnoho humanitarnoho universytetu [Scientific Bulletin of the International Humanitarian University]. Issue 14. P. 159-163.
Parshyna, O.A., Myachin V.H., & Kutsyns’ka, M.V. (2016). Obhruntuvannia ta pobudova funktsii nalezhnosti v nechitko-lohichnii modeli otsinky finansovoho stanu pidpryiemstva ta ryzyku nastannia yoho bankrutstva [Rationale and construction of membership functions in a fuzzy-logic model for assessment of the enterprise financial condition and risk of its bankruptcy]. Visnyk ONU imeni Mechnykova [Bulletin of the Mechnikov ONU]. V.21. Issue 5(48). P. 86-91.
Pegat, A. (2009). Nechetkoe modelirovanie i upravlenie [Fuzzy modeling and control]. Moscow. BINOM. Laboratoriya znanij [BINOMIAL. Knowledge lab], 798 р.
Sosnovska, O.O. (2019). Systema ekonomichnoi bezpeky pidpryiemstv zviazku: monohrafiia [Innovative development and economic security of industrial enterprises: problems of integrated management: monograph]. Kyiv. Tsentr uchbovoi literatury [Center for educational literature]. 440 p.
Starynets, O.H. (2018). Otsinka finansovoho stanu telekomunikatsiinoho pidpryiemstva v systemi antykryzovoho upravlinnia [Estimation of the financial state of telecommunication enterprise in systems of anticrisis management]. Hlobalni ta natsionalni problemy ekonomiky [Global and national economic problems]. Issue 21. P. 407-411.
Tereshchenko, O.O. (2004). Antykryzove finansove upravlinnia na pidpryiemstvi [Anti-crisis financial management at the enterprise]. К.: KNEU. 268 p.
Toffler, R., & Tishaw, H. (1977). Going, going, gone – fourfactors which predict. Accountancy. March. P. 50–54.
Voloshchuk, L.O. (2015). Innovatsiinyi rozvytok ta ekonomichna bezpeka promyslovykh pidpryiemstv: problemy kompleksnoho upravlinnia: monohrafiia [Innovative development and economic security of industrial enterprises: problems of integrated management: monograph]. Bondarenko M.O. 396 p.
Yelisieieva, O.K., & Simon, H.S. (2016). Analiz hroshovykh potokiv firmy yak skladova formuvannia stratehii staloho rozvytku [Analysis of a firm's cash flows as a component of forming a sustainable development strategy]. Business-inform. № 12. P. 380-384.