EXPERT SYSTEM FOR DETERMINING STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS FOR ENSURING THE STABLE FUNCTIONING OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES AND RURAL AREAS
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Abstract
The purpose of the article is to develop an expert system that defines strategic directions to ensure the stable functioning of agro-industrial enterprises and rural areas. The system aims to formalise the selection of optimal development strategies for agro-industrial enterprises by taking into account their competitiveness, innovative potential, and life cycle stage, as well as for rural areas by taking into account the financial capacity of communities (hromadas), in order to increase their adaptability to changes in operating market conditions. Methodology. The expert system for agribusiness enterprises is predicated on three interconnected matrices: The acronyms "C/LC", "IP/LC" and "C/IP" are utilised to facilitate the systematisation of strategic choices based on competitive positions, innovative capabilities and life cycle stages. In rural areas, the DEA method is employed for comparative analysis of the operating environment. This method utilises the principles of linear programming to assess the effectiveness of community (hromada) management. Results. An expert system was developed that combines three strategic matrices for agricultural enterprises ("C/LC", "IP/LC", "C/IP") and a typology of hromada's financial capacity. A total of 33 strategies for agribusiness enterprises and 10 strategies for amalgamated hromadas were proposed. For agribusiness enterprises, the matrices facilitate the formalisation of strategy selection based on the life cycle, level of competitiveness and innovative potential. Four levels of fiscal dependence were identified for AHs, which determine the adaptive development portfolio. Testing the system with five enterprises and hromadas in Vinnytsia confirmed its effectiveness, providing accurate diagnostics, sound strategising and increased adaptability to external challenges. This development enables a shift from fragmented management to a comprehensive strategic development model, both within the agribusiness sector and at the local government level. Practical implications. The expert system increases the accuracy of strategic decisions, reduces the risk of incorrect planning and enables the hromada to respond proactively to external challenges. Testing the model in the Vinnytsia region confirmed its ability to adapt to local socioeconomic realities, thereby ensuring comprehensive development management. Value/Originality. The study's scientific novelty lies in the development of an integrated expert system for strategic management. This system combines three analytical matrices—"C/LC", "IP/LC" and "C/IP"—for the first time, enabling the simultaneous evaluation of the life cycle, innovation potential and competitiveness of agricultural enterprises. This approach enables the flexible selection of innovative and competitive strategies in line with the dynamics of internal and external factors. Additionally, the novelty lies in the construction of a typological model of the strategic development of rural areas. This model provides an opportunity to classify communities (hromadas) according to their level of financial self-sufficiency and to formalise the selection of relevant management strategies. The proposed toolkit enables a shift from reactive to proactive management in both agrarian business and local development management.
How to Cite
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expert system, agro-industrial complex, strategic management, innovation potential, enterprise competitiveness, life cycle, hromada financial capacity, matrix analysis, rural areas, DEA efficiency analysis
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