FORECASTS DESIGN FOR MANAGEMENT OF TRAVEL&TOURISM INDUSTRY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND MITIGATION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract

Restrictions on transportation between countries because of the lockdown caused by COVID-19 have slowed down economic activity worldwide. Therefore, in this paper we examine and estimate the short-term economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global market situation in terms of the international tourism industry. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current economic situation of the world tourism sector, which suffered the most because of the COVID-19 pandemic, determine the main tourist flows (inbound and outbound tourism) and identify main tourism trends that characterize travel and tourism in world in 2020, to form practical directions for improving the tourism industry, domestic tourism in particular. The dynamics of the international tourists’ destinations with complete/partial closure of borders and other restrictions through the region in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. The major trends in the tourism sector during the corona crisis are highlighted. The main practical directions for the resuscitation of the tourism industry have been formed, which will have to reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and have created a basis for increasing the competitiveness of domestic tourism. It is determined that support for the development of the tourism industry at the central and local levels should be based on the expected preferences of tourists and the risk of using illegal resorts with the possibility of infection. The article examines the main problems of the tourism sphere of Ukraine, which have arisen as a result of the introduction of measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic in the world and in Ukraine in particular. Using the experience of other countries and international recommendations, measures for intersectoral cooperation in the context of increased epidemic risks are proposed. The article reveals the peculiarities of the development of the tourist sphere of Ukraine in the conditions of increased epidemic risks. Modern tendencies of functioning of the tourist sphere of the country are investigated. The tourism sector is suffering on a global scale due to the implementation of measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic and the uncertainty of further development of the situation. According to various scenarios, the volume of international tourist arrivals is expected to fall by 58-78% in 2020 compared to the previous year. According to experts, the recovery of demand to the level of 2019 will take at least two years. According to experts, the sphere of tourist services of the corona crisis period will be characterized by giving consumers priority in terms of: choice of shorter rest periods, predominance of individual movement and individual accommodation, choice of health, sea and rural tourism.