TRAFFIC FORECASTING ON THE CITY ROAD NETWORK TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CAPACITY LIMIT

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to present a model of traffic forecasting on the road section based on a model of the transport system. Traffic forecasting is an integral part of the road design process, from investment to the feasibility study of working documentation. The definition of transportation and distribution of cars by sections is based on a set of interrelated factors. Full and reasonable consideration of these factors for complex road networks is possible only with the help of mathematical models and appropriate programs. The accuracy and consistency of the forecast determine the reliability of almost all the main characteristics of the projected object, from the direction of the route and the location of connection points with existing elements of the road network, ending with specific planning decisions for the road objects. Subject of research: a road traffic and a traffic intensity. Knowledge of forecast data on traffic intensity makes it possible to predict the possible mechanisms to solve the above problems. Methodology: analysis and research of methods used to predict traffic volumes. The method of extrapolation and the method of using approximating functions. Goal. The aim of the work is to compare the forecasting methods used to determine traffic on the road. It is also necessary to show the experience of traffic forecasting on the road network from a European country. Conclusion. All methods for predicting the volume and intensity of movement are short-lived, and if some achieve the desired predicted result, it is very vague and needs to be tested with complex and expensive research to determine and process the initial data. To achieve the desired results, it is necessary to apply new methods of forecasting modeling or improvement of already known ones, which would take into account the evolution of the entire transport system and its components. Determining the capacity of highways is necessary perform to identify areas with possible congestion, assessment economy and conditions of movement of vehicles, and also for a choice of methods and means to improve the traffic conditions of all road users.