UKRAINIAN FORCED MIGRANTS’ INTEGRATION IN EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET: GERMAN VS POLISH CASE

Abstract

The tsunami of forced migration caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 poses a significant challenge to the socio-economic systems of host European countries, in particular Germany and Poland, which are the two main destination countries for displaced Ukrainians. Despite relatively similar statistics on the number and demographic structure of Ukrainian forced immigrants, the two countries differ significantly in terms of the level of labour market integration of refugees, which is a key factor determining their social integration and economic outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to study the peculiarities and common features of the integration of Ukrainian forced migrants in the labour markets of Germany and Poland, taking into account the pre-war experience of these countries in attracting Ukrainian economic migrants. Methodology. The study is a comparative analysis of the pre-war and forced migration trajectories of the two countries based on data from the German and Polish statistical services and Eurostat in 2010-2022. Results. The article discusses the redistribution of the main demographic characteristics in the profile of Ukrainian migrants in the post-war period, which led to an increase in the share of women with higher education in the demographic structure of migrants. These demographic differences, coupled with the peculiarities of European labour markets, have affected the employment prospects of Ukrainian refugees in European countries of destination. The pre-war experience of temporary labour migration from Ukraine and social ties between refugees and members of the diaspora were recognised as factors that facilitated the integration of Ukrainian refugees. The analysis showed that in addition to the geographical and cultural proximity between Ukraine and Poland, the circular labour migration model that dominated relations between Ukraine and Poland contributed to the rapid integration of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market after the outbreak of full-scale war. The lack of German language skills is the most common reason for the lower participation of Ukrainians in the German labour market compared to the Polish one. In Germany, favourable labour market conditions combined with integration policies facilitate access to the labour market for Ukrainian refugees in the long term. Practical implications. By examining the previous circular seasonal migration of Ukrainians over the past decade and their labour market integration in specific destination countries after the outbreak of war, this paper provides a broader perspective for the study of the transition from forced to permanent migration. Value/Originality. Given the global growth of both seasonal labour migrants and forms of movement, the key findings of the study provide a better understanding of these changing categories of mobility and their implications.