ESTIMATION OF LOSSES IN UKRAINE DUE TO UNEMPLOYMENT

Abstract

One of the most important criteria, which makes it possible to evaluate the consequences and prospects of the country's development positively, is the dynamic growth of its economy, which is initiated, first of all, by increasing the efficiency of utilization in the national production of human resources. However, their productive implementation is affected by many socio-economic problems, including unemployment. In the economy, unemployment is a reflection of the state of the labor market, which characterizes the balance of supply and demand for jobs, in the social sphere it is one of the main factors for obtaining a stable income. Loss of work leads not only to a decrease in the current material standard of living, but also to the appearance of uncertainty in the future, as well as to the emergence of feelings of inferiority. Because people who want to work but do not have a job, they are not able to contribute to the increase of production of goods and services. The number of unemployed in the country is another indicator of its economic disadvantage. Therefore, unemployment is constantly the focus of government regulation of the economy and the labor market, and the instruments of regulation and its consequences are evolving with the development of socio-economic relations. The aim of the study. This research article is aimed at determining the macroeconomic losses caused by unemployment, taking into account age and gender. This gives a clearer picture of the magnitude of the likely benefit from properly formed and effectively implemented investment in programmatic measures to reduce unemployment as part of the formation of national economic growth strategies. Methodology. The analysis uses a multiplicative model of economic growth that describes the dependence of GDP growth on exogenous factors – the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation and the growth rate of those employed in the economy over the same period. The differences in this part are the use of more accurate data on labor costs: the number of employees is adjusted by gender and age coefficients of labor productivity. Results. The dynamics of the unemployment rate in Ukraine over the last years in terms of gender and age and duration of unemployment are analyzed on the basis of statistics. Based on the constructed production function, the estimation of the potential level of GDP output and the magnitude of its non-receipt in Ukraine due to excess of actual unemployment above its natural level for the period from 2010 to 2016 was made. The resulting production function model can also be applied to predict future GDP values based on the expected levels of fixed capital and the number of employees by age.