CONSIDERING THE STATE OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN THE ENTERPRISES FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY MODELING

Abstract

Construction of a model for predicting the bankruptcy of the enterprise is an urgent and popular task. Using this model will provide an opportunity to make quick and accurate assessment of financial sustainability, predict possible bankruptcy advance and take the necessary action to avoid it. Obviously, bankruptcy can occur both under the influence of internal factors (in particular, financial management errors) and when the economic environment changes. The inclusion of all possible en-vironmental factors influencing into the model is a difficult task and causes an over-load of such a model with a large number of input signals. A more realistic option is to build a model using internal financial indicators only, but under a relatively con-stant external environment. The subject of the study described in the article is the general homogeneity of the Ukrainian economy over time in the context of the possibility of using companies’ reports for these periods to build a neural network model of financial sustainability of enterprises using only internal financial indicators. To separate stable periods from unstable ones, a review of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine for the period 2010–2019 is used. Graphical analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is used as a methodology. The purpose of this study is to identify periods of Ukraine’s economy, the conditions of which are quite stable to take reports of enterprises of these periods for a dataset formation. The article considers the dynamics of the following indicators of Ukraine’s economy: gross domestic product, hryvnia exchange rate, employment, consumer price index, total net profit (loss) of enterprises by size of enterprises, levels of profitability of operating activities, foreign trade indicators by geographical areas (imports and exports of goods and services) etc. The study pays special attention to the economic crisis of 2014–2015 and to changes in the economic environment, which distinguish the conditions before and after the crisis. The main conclusions of the article are the recognition of the existence of crisis phenomena in the period 2014–2015 and the recognition of the difference between the post-crisis period and the pre-crisis period. In order to build an up-to-date model of financial sustainability, it is recommended to use report data for periods not earlier than 2016.