THE IMPACT OF THE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ON BANK LENDING TO INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES: THE CASE OF UKRAINE

Abstract

In today's world, the development of any economy is characterised by numerous financial, socio-economic and political challenges. Ukraine's experience is particularly special, as its macroeconomic environment is undergoing significant shifts and changes due to the unprecedented armed invasion of its sovereign territory by a neighbouring aggressor country. Given the importance of the industrial production sector in the country's economic growth, the problem of additional financial sources for the development of industrial enterprises in the dynamic macroeconomic environment of Ukraine is particularly relevant. Since banks are the dominant link in the financial system of Ukraine, the study of the impact of the macroeconomic environment on bank lending to industrial enterprises is of particular scientific interest. The article is aimed at identifying and analysing the key economic factors of the macroeconomic environment of Ukraine that influenced the state of bank lending to industrial enterprises in 2009-2022, using economic and mathematical modelling methods. Methodology. The study is based on the data that showed the highest correlations between the outcome variable - the volume of bank lending to industrial enterprises (in billion UAH) and the explanatory variables - economic factors of the macroeconomic environment of different groups (general indicators of economic development; indicators of industrial development; indicators of socio-economic development; indicators of the monetary market; indicators of public finance; indicators of the external sector; indicators of the foreign exchange market) for the period 2009-2022. Based on these data, a multiple linear regression model is built and the results are interpreted. Practical implications. The practical results can serve as a basis for further research on ways to improve the risk management of bank lending to industrial enterprises in a dynamic macroeconomic environment; ways to improve the management of problem debts of industrial enterprises; ways to intensify bank lending to industrial enterprises in Ukraine as a prerequisite for post-war economic reconstruction on the basis of sustainable development, etc. Value/Originality. The results of the research provide a deeper understanding of the role of the country's macroeconomic environment, its dynamics and the impact of certain economic factors on the development of bank lending to industrial enterprises as an important source of additional financial resources for industrial enterprises.