MINNESOTA RENTAL MARKET: DISTORTED DEMAND AND A SHORTAGE OF MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSING

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

Published: Dec 26, 2025

  Mykyta Kravchenko

Abstract

The article aimed to study structural imbalances in Minnesota's rental housing market, with a focus on the shortage of affordable housing for middle-income populations. Methods employed included comparative analysis and the examination of statistical reports and housing affordability indicators. The results demonstrate a systemic distortion of demand: higher-income households are displacing lower-income households from the affordable housing market, and the pace of construction of middle-class housing significantly lags behind that of upscale projects. Particular attention is paid to the Twin Cities agglomeration, where the supply crisis has been exacerbated by a decrease in the number of building permits. The problem of the Minnesota housing market was found to lie in an acute shortage of housing for those with incomes below 30% of the state average, which is associated with a decrease in construction volumes. Despite the growth of real median incomes in the state, middle-income households are provided with housing. By contrast, very low-income households are being priced out of the rental market because it is so affordable for the middle classes. Rising rents are exacerbating the problem of rental affordability for the state’s poorest residents. Overall, Minnesota’s rental market is experiencing a systemic shortage of affordable housing, with households at all income levels spending a growing proportion of their income on rent as real incomes fall. Further research should examine the effectiveness of local housing support policies and the impact of institutional investors on the rental market structure.

How to Cite

Kravchenko, M. (2025). MINNESOTA RENTAL MARKET: DISTORTED DEMAND AND A SHORTAGE OF MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSING. Economics and Education, 10(4), 47-52. https://doi.org/10.30525/2500-946X/2025-4-5
Article views: 12 | PDF Downloads: 10

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

rental market, housing affordability, housing vacancy rate, deformed demand, housing shortage, affordable housing shortage

References

Lee, Y., Kemp, P. A., & Reina, V. J. (2022). Drivers of housing (un) affordability in the advanced economies: A review and new evidence. Housing Studies, 37(10), 1739–1752.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (n.d.). OECD affordable housing database. OECD. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/oecd-affordable-housing-database.html

Matlack, J. L. & Vigdor, J. L. (2008) Do rising tides lift all prices? Income inequality and housing affordability. Journal of Housing Economics, 17, pp. 212–224. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2008.06.004

Dong, H. (2018). The impact of income inequality on rental affordability: An empirical study in large American metropolitan areas. Urban Studies, 55(10), 2106–2122.

Myers, D., & Park, J. (2019). A constant quartile mismatch indicator of changing rental affordability in US metropolitan areas, 2000 to 2016. Cityscape, 21(1), 163–200.

Anthony, J. (2018). Economic prosperity and housing affordability in the United States: lessons from the booming 1990s. Housing Policy Debate, 28(3), 325–341.

Anthony, J. (2023). Housing affordability and economic growth. Housing policy debate, 33(5), 1187–1205.

Kang, S., Jeon, J. S., & Airgood-Obrycki, W. (2024). Exploring mismatch in within-metropolitan affordable housing in the United States. Urban Studies, 61(2), 231–253.

Metropolitan Council (n.d.). Ownership and rent affordability limits. Available at: https://metrocouncil.org/Housing/Planning/Affordable-Housing-Measures/Ownership-and-Rent-Affordability-Limits.aspx

Metropolitan Council (n.d.). Ownership and rent affordability limits: History. Available at: https://metrocouncil.org/Housing/Planning/Affordable-Housing-Measures/Ownership-and-Rent-Affordability-Limits.aspx#History

National Low Income Housing Coalition (2023). The Gap: A shortage of affordable homes. Available at: https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/gap/Gap-Report_2023.pdf

National Low Income Housing Coalition (2024). The Gap: A shortage of affordable homes. Available at: https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/gap/2024/Gap-Report_2024.pdf

National Low Income Housing Coalition (2024). State housing profile: Minnesota. Available at: https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/SHP_MN.pdf

Zillow. (2024). Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) – Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro. Available at: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/

University of Minnesota Center for Urban and Regional Affairs (2021). Minneapolis Rent Stabilization Study. Available at: https://www.cura.umn.edu/sites/cura.umn.edu/files/2021-08/Minneapolis-Rent-Stabilization-Study-web.pdf

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (2025). FY 2025 HOME income limits – Minnesota. Available at: https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/home-datasets/files/HOME_IncomeLmts_State_MN_2025.pdf

U.S. Census Bureau (2024). Real median household income in Minnesota [MEHOINUSMNA672N]. FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSMNA672N

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (n.d.). Rental vacancy rate for Minnesota (MNRVAC). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MNRVAC