The main goal of the study is to identify endogenous and exogenous factors that determine the scale and dynamics of Ukraine’s exports of organic agricultural food products (OAP). The formulated goal caused assessment of a number of potential factors influencing the development of the export potential of the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex in terms of production and sales of organic agricultural products on foreign markets. The authors conducted economic and mathematical modeling based on the software product E-Views. The observation interval covers 2008-2019. Multifactorial regression model has been constructed and tested for heteroscedasticity, as well as causal relationships have been identified between the main indicators of supply and demand and the exports volumes of related organic products. This makes it possible for further forecast on Ukraine’s exports in the short and medium term. Methodology. The study has been based on statistics from international and Ukrainian institutions specializing in organic farming and trade, including FiBL (Research Institute of Organic Agriculture), the Federation of Organic Movement of Ukraine. Databases of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, UNCTAD for the period 2008-2019 were also involved, which made it possible to conduct a full cycle of research procedures in order to identify the most significant factors influencing Ukraine’s export activity within related segment of the global market. The results of the conducted modeling show the following: achievement and increase of Ukraine’s relative advantage in international trade of organic agro-food products for the outlined years; the existence of strong connection between the volume of exports of organic agro-food products and the level of comparative country’s advantages in international trade; identifying a significant impact on exports of endogenous factors, namely the level of wholesale and retail sales on the domestic market of Ukraine as a factor that creates additional demand from the population and business of Ukraine (B2B and B2C markets) for organic products and enhances the attention of agricultural manufacturers to activities that combine the criteria of high profitability and public demand. Another endogenous factor is the volume of areas allocated for organic farming has shown insignificant impact, however, it allows to create resource conditions for increasing production and export activity of national business in a particular sphere on various directions, from meat and dairy products to production of organic fruit, vegetables, etc. Practical implications. Conceptual provisions, conclusions formulated by the authors based on the conducted econometric modeling, allow to optimize the measures of regulatory policy in terms of institutional support of conditions and factors contributing to promising activities of the national agro-industrial complex. This will ensure the implementation of the national strategy on sustainable development with its emphasis achieving environmental criteria of production and consumption, reduce the level of import dependence upon a number of strategically important food groups and, at the same time, increase economic efficiency of Ukrainian agricultural business. Value/originality. Prospects for further research in this area may assess the potential of international production and marketing cooperation between Ukrainian agricultural companies and non-resident companies in terms of limiting the latter’s access to the land market in Ukraine while finding flexible mechanisms to stimulate joint production and sale of organic agricultural products on international markets according to quality and safety standards.
How to Cite
exports, comparative trade advantages, organic production, food security, import dependence, standardization, neo-protectionism, COVID-19
Aitken, R., Watkins, L., Williams, J. and Kean A. (2020). The Positive Role of Labelling on Consumers` Perceived Behavioral Control and Intentional to Purchase Organic Food. Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 255, 10 May 2020. Retrieved 04 March, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120334
Baquedano, Felix, Cheryl Christensen, Kayode Ajewole, and Jayson Beckman (2020). International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30, GFA-31, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August 2020. Retrieved 02 March, 2021 from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/99088/gfa-31.pdf?v=7271.5/
Bazaluk, O., Yatsenko, O., Zakharchuk, O., Ovcharenko, A., Khrystenko, O. and Nitsenko, V. (2020). Dynamic Development of the Global Organic Food Market and Opportunities for Ukraine. Sustainability 12, no. 17: 6963. Retrieved 12 March, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12176963
Dudar, V. (2019). Competitive advantages of organic agro-food products properties from the standpoint of marketing. Bulletin of Ternopil National University of Economics. №1, pp. 131–140.
ESCAP, The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. (2021). Trade facilitation in times of crisis and pandemic: Practices and lessons from the Asia-Pacific region. Retrieved 26 March, 2021, P. 36. Retrieved 12 April, 2021 from: https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/knowledge-products/Regional%20report-Trade%20facilitation%20in%20times%20of%20crisis%20and%20pandemic_0.pdf.
Ganush, G. I. (2013). Prospects for the development of production of environmentally safe (organic) food products in Belarus. Sustainable development of agriculture in Belarus within new conditions. Inst. research. in the APC of Nat. acad. Science of Belarus. Minsk, pp. 41–44.
Greene, C., Carolyn, D., Biing-Hwan, L., William, McB., Oberholtzer, L. and Travis, S. (2009). Emerging Issues in the U.S. Organic Industry. EIB-55. Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Number 55 June 2009, P.36. Retrieved 18 March, 2021 from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/44406/9397_eib55_1_.pdf?v=0
Jaouen, A., Jaeck, M., Joly C. and Kessari, M. (2020). Les magasins de producteurs: vers un renouveau de l’action collective des PME agricoles. Revue internationale P.M.E., Volume 33, Numero 3-4, pp. 261–296. Retrieved 06 March, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.7202/1074816ar.
Makhnovets, M. (2020). How to find your place in global organic trade? APK-Inform: 2020, №12 (66). Retrieved 18 March, 2021 from: https://www.apk-inform.com/uk/exclusive/topic/1506789.
Muñoz-Sanchez, V. & Flores, A. M. (2021). The Connections between Ecological Values and Organic Food: Bibliometric Analysis and Systematic Review at the Start of the 21st Century. Sustainability, 13 (7), 3616. Retrieved 02 April, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073616.
Mykhaylenko, O. G. (2017). Analysis of international trade in organic agricultural products development. Bulletin of the Odessa National University. Series: Economics, Vol. 22(5), pp. 33–38. Retrieved 06 February, 2021 from: http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Vonu_econ_2017_22_5_8.
Nagachevska, T., Apostol, M., Fedun, I., Kuzioma, O., & Prygara, O. (2021). Mechanisms for Attracting Foreign Investment in the Agrarian Sector of Ukraine. The Importance of New Technologies and Entrepreneurship in Business Development: In The Context of Economic Diversity in Developing Countries: The Impact of New Technologies and Entrepreneurship on Business Development, ICBT 2020, vol. 194, 960–976. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69221-6_74.
Oberholtzer, L., Carolyn, D. and Jaenicke, C.E. (2013). International trade of organic food: Evidence of US imports. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems. Volume 28, Issue 3, pp. 255–262. Retrieved 12 December, 2020 from: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170512000191
Schäufele, І. and Hamm, U. (2017). Consumers’ perceptions, preferences and willingness-to-pay for wine with sustainability characteristics: A review. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 147, 20 March 2017, pp. 379–394. Retrieved 10 March, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.118.
Tkalenko, S., Sukurova, N., Kudyrko, L., and Litvin, N. (2021) Digitization of Investment-Innovation Development of Ukrainian Economy: Empirical Analysis. In: Antipova T. (eds) Comprehensible Science. ICCS 2020. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 186, pp. 43–60. Retrieved 24 March, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66093-2_5
Tsvitko, E. (2018). State and trends of the world market of organic products. Bulletin of BarSU. Series: Economic Sciences. Minsk, vol. 6/2018, pp. 103–108.
Varia, F., Macaluso, D., Agosta, I., Spatafora, F. and Giovanni D.G. (2021). Transitioning towards Organic Farming: Perspectives for the Future of the Italian Organic Wine Sector. Sustainability, 13, no. 5: 2815. Retrieved 04 April, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052815
Willer, H., Schlatter, B., Trávníček, J., Kemper, L. and Lernoud, J. (Eds.) (2020). The World of Organic Agriculture Statistics and Emerging Trends 2020. 21st edition. Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) and IFOAM – Organics International, Frick and Bonnhttps. Retrieved 15 March, 2021 from: https://orgprints.org/id/eprint/37222/