DІAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTING OF CUSTOMS PAYMENTS AS A TOOL FOR ENSURING NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL LAW IN UKRAINE

Abstract

In light of the challenges posed by the full-scale war, the issue of Ukraine's national security has assumed a new strategic significance that extends far beyond the military sphere. In the context of armed aggression, a key element in ensuring national stability and sovereignty is the regulation and management of customs payments. These have evolved into a powerful tool for supporting both economic and border security. Prior to the full-scale invasion, Ukraine's customs system was undergoing a process of modernisation, with a focus on aligning with European standards of administration, transparency, and digital integration. Concurrently, during wartime, the role of customs authorities in ensuring national security underwent significant expansion, primarily through the implementation of stringent controls over the movement of dual-use goods, the reduction of illegal imports, the combatting of smuggling, and the prevention of the financing of terrorist organisations. Despite the attention paid to the fiscal function of customs payments by both domestic and foreign researchers, the analysis of the security potential of the customs system in conditions of martial law requires closer consideration. In particular, the specifics of customs policy should be considered as a factor in mobilising resources to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stabilise the state budget, strengthen trade borders, and counteract the destructive effects of external economic threats. In this context, research into the relationship between customs policy, economic security, and Ukraine's national interests in wartime becomes particularly important. The subject of the present study is the functioning of the customs payment system as an instrument of national security support during armed conflict. The aim of the present study is twofold: firstly, to ascertain the potential of the customs system as a means of strengthening national security, taking into account the challenges of wartime; and secondly, to develop proposals for the effective use of customs revenues for post-war recovery. The study employed a combination of general scientific and applied methods. In particular, system analysis was used to study the functions of the customs authorities under martial law; economic and statistical methods were used to assess the dynamics of customs revenues; and methods of analysis and synthesis were used to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the security functions of the customs system. Additionally, graphical methods were employed to visualise changes in the structure of customs payments. This article examines the peculiarities of Ukraine’s customs policy in the context of the challenges posed by the war. It notes that customs payments are crucial for maintaining financial stability, defence potential and economic security. The article emphasises that post-war recovery should be based on the effective use of the customs system as a tool for not only filling the budget, but also mitigating the risks associated with the shadow economy, illegal transit and smuggling. Conclusion. Under martial law, the customs system performs a dual function of fiscal and security measures, enabling the state to respond quickly to internal and external challenges. Customs payments provide a reliable source of funding for defence, logistics and critical infrastructure. In the post-war period, customs policy should be strengthened and modernised to focus on strategic national security goals. Thus, a new security architecture for Ukraine is being formed through the prism of customs payments, based on the principles of transparency, efficiency, and European management standards.