FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of an approach to forecasting the level of development of the nuclear industrial complex of Ukraine. The main purpose of this work is to forecast the level of development of the nuclear industry of Ukraine on the basis of the formed system of indicators that characterize both quantitative and qualitative changes in its operation. General scientific and special research methods, methods of analytical equalization, correlation and regression analysis, and scenario approach were used in the work, which in general allowed to fulfill the purpose of forecasting the level of development of the nuclear industrial complex of Ukraine. Statistical material on the indicators of attraction and use of production means, investment and innovation resources as the main sources of development of the nuclear industrial complex is collected and systematized. Growth rates that characterize quantitative and qualitative changes by sources of development are calculated; on this basis, an integrated assessment of the development of the nuclear industrial complex of Ukraine is given, its type is determined. An approach to forecasting the development of the nuclear industrial complex has been developed. Based on the developed approach, forecasting of development indicators was carried out. The forecast calculations have shown that in the forecast period it is possible to ensure further development with a focus on innovation, due to the increase of generalized indicators of development by its individual sources and the integrated indicator of development as a whole. The results of forecasting can create a basis for making sound management decisions in the field of managing the development of the nuclear industry.