MODELING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GROWTH FACTORS AND CONSTRAINTS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CREATIVE ECONOMY IN GERMANY, FRANCE, SPAIN, AND POLAND

Abstract

In the context of global turbulence, the creative economy is emerging as a pivotal asset in the pursuit of national competitiveness and territorial resilience. Concurrently, the evolution of the creative economy is inextricably linked to the prevailing digital and "green" agendas. The integration of the creative sector into the digital economy and its contribution to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) require fundamentally new methodological approaches, thereby fostering the formation of a scientific basis for building a new paradigm of sustainable regional development in post-crisis and crisis periods. In this context, the need for a quantitative assessment of the correlation between external constraints (barriers) and internal growth factors becomes a priority task for the design of effective anti-crisis strategies. The aim of such strategies is to ensure the viability of regional development under conditions of turbulence. The purpose of this article is to provide a quantitative assessment and modelling of the interdependencies between growth factors and constraints on the development of the creative economy in Germany, France, Spain and Poland. The methodological framework of the study is based on comparable national statistical data for the period 2017–2024, obtained from the Eurostat database. The composite Creative Economy Development Index (CEDI) is employed as the dependent variable, constructed on the basis of indicators of employment in cultural sectors, the number of creative industry enterprises, and the volume of value added. The study employs a range of economic, innovation, digital, and socio-demographic factors as explanatory variables. These include gross domestic product, expenditure on research and development, indicators of digital accessibility, and the level of educational attainment of the population. The research employs a range of analytical techniques, including correlation analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression, enabling the consistent identification of relationships, their structuring into latent dimensions, and the assessment of the direction and strength of their influence. The findings of the study indicated that the factors propelling the growth of the creative economy concomitantly engender its constraints, thereby elucidating the variations in the developmental trajectories of the creative economy across countries adhering to disparate models. The findings demonstrate that the creative economy in Europe does not develop in accordance with the principle of "more technologies – more creativity". Instead, it follows the logic of a structural balance between the economic and innovation base, the digital environment, and human capital. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the obtained results in the development not only of creative industry development strategies aimed at the integrated advancement of the economic and innovation base, digital infrastructure, and human capital, but also of broader regional development strategies. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the empirical substantiation of stable interdependencies between growth factors and constraints on the development of the creative economy in countries with different socio-economic models. This expands theoretical understanding of the mechanisms underlying the functioning of the creative economy in the European space.