ECONOMIC AND LEGAL ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES CAUSED BY THE DESTRUCTION OF THE KAKHOVKA HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT
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Abstract
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on June 6, 2023, constitutes one of the largest technogenic-environmental catastrophes in European history, releasing the majority of the reservoir's 18 km³ volume, resulting in flooding that affected 80 settlements across four oblasts and directly impacted approximately 100,000 people. Despite the unprecedented scale of the disaster, existing damage assessments remain fragmented and methodologically limited. The official Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), conducted by the Government of Ukraine and the United Nations, estimates total damage at 13.8 billion USD. However, the time horizon for ecosystem service losses is limited to 18 months, and a conservative 50% impact fraction is applied. Although alternative assessments by CEPR and the Centre for Economic Strategy provide sectoral data, they lack an integrated mechanism. This article presents a comprehensive mechanism for calculating the economic damage caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Drawing on an analysis of international judicial precedents (ICJ Costa Rica v. Nicaragua, UNCC F4 Panel), the methodologies of international organisations (World Bank DaLA, FAO, TEEB) and scientific approaches to the valuation of ecosystem services (Costanza et al.), the article proposes a five-component formula:TD = D + L_econ + L_eco + I + R, which encompasses direct damage, economic losses, losses of ecosystem services, indirect effects and recovery needs. A three-scenario approach (conservative, base case and high-end case) is appropriate for calculating environmental damage, applying a declining discount rate and time horizons of 30–100 years. The illustrative calculation shows that the total damage is in the range of 19–83 billion USD, which exceeds the PDNA estimate by between 1.4 and 6 times. The proposed mechanism can be applied to other cases of dam destruction in armed conflict or peacetime, providing a transparent and replicable framework for assessing damage in judicial, policy-making and scientific contexts.
How to Cite
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ecosystem services valuation, dam failure consequences, DaLA methodology, declining discount rate, post-disaster needs assessment, wetland restoration, armed conflict environmental liability, compensation for environmental harm
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