THE ECONOMY OF WAR AND POSTWAR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: WORLD AND UKRAINIAN REALITIES

Abstract

The subject of the research is the study of global economic growth during the war in Ukraine, the analysis of the war economy and the postwar economic development in Ukraine. Methodology. The study used general scientific methods, in particular: theoretical generalization; methods of positive and normative analysis and statistical analysis. The aim of the work is the process of studying the world economic growth during the war in Ukraine, the analysis of the war economy and the postwar economic development in Ukraine. The conclusion of the study. The forecast for global economic growth during the war in Ukraine assumes that the rate in developed economies will reach a 38-year high of 5.7 percent, while price growth in developed and developing countries will accelerate to 8.7 percent, the fastest decline since the global financial crisis of 2008. The acceleration is projected to decline by 2.5 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, starting in 2023. Global socioeconomic development will depend on the most significant factors: energy and food contributed to rising inflation in 2021, when oil and gas supplies were constrained after several years of restrained investment and geopolitical uncertainty; rising food prices will affect every country in the world as extreme weather has reduced crop yields and rising oil and gas prices have increased fertilizer costs; factory closures, port restrictions, ship congestion, container shortages and staff shortages will continue to disrupt some sectors; labor shortages, especially in high-contact industries, are driving up wages, although inflation has caused them to fall. It has been researched that according to estimates of national and other international expert institutions, the reduction of Ukraine's GDP in 2022 will be 35%. The analysis showed that in April 2022, regions where significant hostilities are taking place or part of the territory is under occupation account for almost 20 percent of Ukraine's GDP, in particular: Kharkiv – 6.11 percent, Donetsk – 4.89 percent, Zaporizhzhia – 3.96 percent, Mykolaiv – 2.29 percent, Luhansk – 1.02 percent, Kherson – 1.62 percent. It is established that during the three months of the war in Ukraine there was a deep decline in economic activity, and the introduction of a number of tax changes to mitigate the shock in the economy led to a significant reduction in tax revenues. The directions of post-war economic growth for Ukraine are suggested.